Time Machine massively overestimates space needed for backup. (22TB estimated vs 6TB actual.)

Working on an M1 iMac running Sequoia (latest version as of 4/8/25.)


Time Machine is massively overestimating the size necessary to make a backup. The internal and external drives that are to be backed up have a footprint under 6TB. (5.84Tb)


And yet when I go to configure a new Time Machine drive, it estimates the space needed for backup is 22TB!?! That's a huge disparity that cannot be explained by the presence of TM snapshots (already removed those).



Yet, if I run the command line utility to show the log entries with TM estimates for the size needed for backup, it's correct. (5.84Tb)



Here's the kicker...the first backup completes successfully. But the second time it tries to backup, the estimated space needed stops the backup from completing.


Any ideas how to remedy this? I am at wit's end. The disparity is massive. Not just a few gigs or even a few hundred, but many many terabytes larger. And it's preventing Time Machine from functioning properly.



Posted on Apr 8, 2025 11:50 AM

Reply
7 replies

Apr 9, 2025 10:27 AM in response to Jeff Hirsch

Jeff Hirsch wrote:

Ah, but Time Machine IS stopping me. After the initial backup completes successfully (and yes, it really is 5.84 TB between the internal and external drives being backed up) any secondary backup fails because Time Machine claims there isn't enough space to do the backup.

That's what that 5.84 TB calculation you are seeing in the logs is for. On your first backup, you have 8 TB free, which is enough for 5.84 TB. But on your second backup, you only have 2.16 TB free, which is less than half of what Time Machine may need.


The changes are incremental after the first backup

How does Time Machine know that? It is designed to be as efficient as possible. People are out there backing up 11 TBs of data with it. With that much data, they don't have the luxury of multiple passes to see what's really needed. It just takes the previous snapshot and duplicates it. Then it goes through your drives being backed up and checks each file, one by one, to see if it has changed. If there is a change, then that file gets copied to the backup.


But it doesn't know ahead of time which files have been changed. It just has to hope that they fit. If it thinks they might not fit, then it won't even start.


I have been setting these systems up for years and never run into this particular problem. As long as there is sufficient free space for the data changes needing to be backed up (hourly, daily, weekly, etc.) it has always worked. Until this situation.

What is "this situation"? Did something change. If everything is working fine, then why make a big change? If you want to upgrade the system or something, then that comes at a cost. Your old procedures and expectations might need to be adjusted. But hey, you've got new features now.


Never said that the 6TB was "constantly changing".

So why are you using a backup system designed for a constantly changing data source?


Something is acutely wrong with the estimation routine in this case. I have checked this on several of my own systems and they accurately report the total footprint NOT twice the actual size.

I'm not seeing any problem. It sounds like maybe you were using an older Time Machine drive. Apple redesigned Time Machine a few years ago. It will still work with older drives, but any new backup drives will use the new system. You'll either need a bigger backup drive or a smaller source.

Apr 9, 2025 12:05 PM in response to Jeff Hirsch

Jeff Hirsch wrote:

1) It sounds like you are saying that TM makes a complete backup every time it runs and requires a drive capable of holding multiple FULL copies of the source data.

My understanding is that Time Machine makes an initial backup of everything you ask it to cover and all subsequent backups after the first one are incremental and only contain the deltas from the original backup. Any differences.

(Is that no longer the case? If that were true, you'd need a massive TM drive capable of many many full copies of your data. That's never been the case as far as I understand.)

Time Machine uses a clever technical "trick" to implement incremental backups. The incremental part is an implementation detail. As far as the outside world is concerned, each backup is a complete copy of all files on all source drives.


If you ever attempt something like manually copying directories out of a Time Machine backup, or performing some kind of disk check, then you could run into an erroneous situation where you need an infinitely large hard drive or your file copy is expected to take 17 years.


A few years ago, Apple switched the Time Machine implementation from the old HFS+ format to the newer APFS format. That switch also necessitated changing the "trick" that makes Time Machine work. In the previous system, Time Machine used a directory hard link, which technically didn't exist. Modern Time Machine uses APFS snapshots, which are radically different, but more reliable, and less likely to cause the problems mentioned above.


You ask: "How does TM know what's changed between backups?" That's literally its job! You can see this clearly in the dialog where TM is "Calculating changes".

Don't read too much into what you read on dialog boxes. For any kind of long running process, any UI should be considered for user entertainment purposes only. There is no way to tell what is actually happening underneath.


It knows exactly which files are completely new, which are modified, and which have been removed.

But how? It literally has to check. That requires a disk access on the source and then another on the target. And then if it detects a change, it has to copy a file.


The older version of Time Machine used directories to shortcut the process and speed up the backup. The new design uses an APFS snapshot. That new design is going to result in different behaviour.


Each incremental backup (after the initial) is made up of the changes.

Once the internals are done, there are no more incremental backups. Each backup is a complete copy of the drive. It uses low-level APFS features like snapshots and copy-on-write data blocks to implement have a complete copy while reusing any data blocks that haven't changed.


Can you direct me to some documentation indicating that this isn't how TM works?

As I said before, this is an implementation detail. Apple doesn't document implementation details.


Perhaps things changed with one of the last couple of OS releases? I dunno. But this is literally the only user I support who has the problem. Everybody else uses a similar backup strategy and none of them are given this insane figure for estimated size needed to backup.

Perhaps there is something unique about this user's setup. Maybe one of the drives being backed up isn't APFS.


2) Your assumption about using an "older Time Machine drive" is erroneous. The user has tried brand new "out of the box" drives (and more than one!)

I think you misunderstood. If you have an existing Time Machine backup drive formatted in the older HFS+ system, then a modern computer will be able to continue to write new data to the backup. But users can no longer create those HFS+ Time Machine volumes. All newly created Time Machine volumes must be APFS. Another possibility is that this particular user is the only one with a new Time Machine drive. Any existing Time Machine drives will continue to work the same way they always have.


3) We may have different definitions for "constantly changing" in regards to the 6TB data I want to keep backed up for this user. The changes are typically to a fraction of the 6TB and not "the whole thing". So it may just be a matter of definitions/nomenclature. She isn't altering all 6TB regularly. Just adding, editing, or removing a minute fraction of that data on any given day.

So why back it up with Time Machine? It's like an accountant having client data for the past 20 years. Only the past couple of years is likely to change. So why spend the time, effort, and money on backing up all of the data that isn't changing?


Time Machine is a backup. It's not an archive. If there is data that isn't regularly being updated, then it needs to be moved to an archive. Otherwise, Time Machine may delete the data eventually.

Apr 9, 2025 8:34 AM in response to Jeff Hirsch

That's a very interesting dialog box you have there. For many years, we helpers in the forums have recommended people use a Time Machine backup drive that is 3 times larger than all of the drives being backed up. As is typically the case, sometimes people scoff at this idea. Inevitably, those are the people that have problems with Time Machine.


As hard drives started to get bigger and bigger, it has become practically impossible to even find a hard drive 3 times bigger than all the drives being backed up. And in most cases, people can't fill up those massive drives to begin with. So we started changing our recommendation to be twice the size of drives being backed up, and if that's still too big, at least twice the size of all used data. Apparently, Apple agrees. 😄


You mentioned that the drives you want to backup have a "footprint" of 5.84 TB. Obviously that is the size of all of your used data. Apple is still playing it very conservatively. Apple sees your total hard drive size of 11 TB and wants 22 TB to back that all up.


Time Machine isn't stopping you. It's just warning you that you can expect problems in the future. Your backup drive is going to have 2.16 TB of free space. None of us know how you got to 5.84 TB of wired data to begin with. The chances of you having problems with that are quite high.


Do you really have 5.84 TB of constantly changing data that always needs to be available? Maybe you are a video professional or similar, who really does need that much data. Maybe you need an equally professional-grade backup disk. If not, maybe you should consider using Time Machine only for your startup drive and manually make duplicate copies of your archival data that doesn't change very often.

Apr 9, 2025 8:17 AM in response to leroydouglas

Not the issue. It's been formatted this way, it's been reformatted and started fresh. Problem comes back every time. It's not the format of the drive being used or the brand or the model. These have all been thoroughly tested.


And while Time Machine does prefer APFS for the file system, it doesn't "like" to see the drive encrypted or "need" it to be encrypted for any reason. That's an option, not a requirement for functionality.

Apr 9, 2025 8:44 AM in response to etresoft

Ah, but Time Machine IS stopping me. After the initial backup completes successfully (and yes, it really is 5.84 TB between the internal and external drives being backed up) any secondary backup fails because Time Machine claims there isn't enough space to do the backup. The changes are incremental after the first backup and yet TM balks because it is incorrectly calculating the space needed. I have been setting these systems up for years and never run into this particular problem. As long as there is sufficient free space for the data changes needing to be backed up (hourly, daily, weekly, etc.) it has always worked. Until this situation.


Never said that the 6TB was "constantly changing". The changes are much smaller and more incremental. The backup has the capacity and should allow it to run. Yet it still balks.


Something is acutely wrong with the estimation routine in this case. I have checked this on several of my own systems and they accurately report the total footprint NOT twice the actual size.

Apr 9, 2025 11:07 AM in response to etresoft

1) It sounds like you are saying that TM makes a complete backup every time it runs and requires a drive capable of holding multiple FULL copies of the source data.


My understanding is that Time Machine makes an initial backup of everything you ask it to cover and all subsequent backups after the first one are incremental and only contain the deltas from the original backup. Any differences.


(Is that no longer the case? If that were true, you'd need a massive TM drive capable of many many full copies of your data. That's never been the case as far as I understand.)


You ask: "How does TM know what's changed between backups?" That's literally its job! You can see this clearly in the dialog where TM is "Calculating changes". It knows exactly which files are completely new, which are modified, and which have been removed. Each incremental backup (after the initial) is made up of the changes.


Can you direct me to some documentation indicating that this isn't how TM works? Perhaps things changed with one of the last couple of OS releases? I dunno. But this is literally the only user I support who has the problem. Everybody else uses a similar backup strategy and none of them are given this insane figure for estimated size needed to backup.


2) Your assumption about using an "older Time Machine drive" is erroneous. The user has tried brand new "out of the box" drives (and more than one!)


3) We may have different definitions for "constantly changing" in regards to the 6TB data I want to keep backed up for this user. The changes are typically to a fraction of the 6TB and not "the whole thing". So it may just be a matter of definitions/nomenclature. She isn't altering all 6TB regularly. Just adding, editing, or removing a minute fraction of that data on any given day.

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Time Machine massively overestimates space needed for backup. (22TB estimated vs 6TB actual.)

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